T.T. 63: has The Big Print started?
Many signs point to the monetary paradigm shift accelerating
Hola amigos,
Greetings from D.C.
My last post was over 2000 words.
This will be my shortest in a while.
I have a lot going on between my fiat mining job and early stage planning for Economía Bitcoin round 2 on November 22-23 in Berlín.
Just a few points feel urgent to address.
Let’s dive in:
Topic List
Bitcoin vs M2 correlation
“The Big Print”
(yes, I’m endorsing this book again)
Elon and Trump fallout
Trump on Bitcoin and the Fed
Other billionaires buying Bitcoin
Vegas conference takeaways
Economía Bitcoin
Bitcoin vs M2 correlation
I almost included this chart last post.
I left it out for the same reason why many Bitcoiners say that “technical analysis is like horoscopes for men”: Bitcoin has historically broken most attempts to predict its fiat price action with financial models.
In retrospect, I should’ve included it.
At this point, this correlation over the past 1.5 years is impossible to ignore:
This correlation even predicted last week’s dip.
Going back to at least September 2023 — one month after I moved to El Salvador — the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price have correlated almost perfectly with about a ten week lag.
Again, predictive models usually don’t stay accurate for very long with Bitcoin.
This one makes sense though.
M2 money supply might be the most accurate official metric for tracking monetary inflation.
Newly printed money takes a bit of time to circulate into the economy, so it makes sense that there’s about a ten week lag before the increased money supply is reflected in the fiat exchange price of the ultimate hedge against monetary inflation.
I wouldn’t count on the trend to continue… but if it does, Bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price would reach about $150,000 in the next ten weeks.
That type of explosive growth happens periodically throughout Bitcoin’s history. Again, I would NOT count on it — my only financial advice here is to NOT gamble with leverage — but there’s a very good chance that people who aren’t buying right now will regret waiting on the sidelines.
Just putting that out there…
“The Big Print”
I went into more detail about this new book in my previous post.
Since then, however, it’s found its way into the hands of at least one President and at least one well known billionaire:
The author, Lawrence Lepard, is a Harvard Business School alumnus with decades of experience successfully managing investment funds.
He’s also one of the world’s best sound money educators, and an absolute gentleman whom I happened to meet last year at the Halving Party in El Salvador.
He even spoke remotely for us at Economía Bitcoin last year (video coming soon, along with a lot of other content from the debut event). He also wants to visit Berlín.
That being said, I’m not speaking from bias when I highly endorse his work. I’ve read at least a dozen books about macroeconomics and monetary policy. I’ve met other Bitcoin authors, and I’m not bringing up their work here.
If I had to pick only one book that’s accessible to anyone about the unprecedented economic circumstances we’re all facing… THIS IS IT.
“The Big Print” by Lawrence Lepard
This is the best introduction to an extremely important topic. It’s the most important finance/economics book of the year.
(And for any libertarians reading this… if you aren’t sufficiently impressed by Presidents and billionaires reading his book, well, Lawrence was also on the Tom Woods Show a couple months ago)
Elon and Trump fallout
The warning signs were there.
I went into them a bit in my last post… Elon’s goals to save the U.S. economy go beyond what Congress has the will (or desire) to implement.
President Trump is a pragmatist. He made a deal with the “Big Beautiful Bill” that actually does cut spending, and also prevents major tax increases.
The problem?
Our national debt is almost $37 trillion.
Interest payments on the national debt cost over $1 trillion — even more than the national defense budget — and that’s going to increase significantly even if the fiscal deficit remains the same.
And now the deficit is about to get even worse, on top of the need to refinance existing debt at higher interest rates.
I won’t dissect the drama between Elon and Trump. The President has a history of telling his friends to pretend to hate him publicly so their personal businesses don’t suffer from leftist backlash. It’s plausible that some of the drama is exaggerated for show.
Elon’s point is correct though.
The inflationary debt spiral is accelerating, and if the deficits continue to increase, it’s an existential threat to the world’s entire monetary system.
As I mentioned in the last post…
There’s a reason why so much of the “smart money” — including many on Wall Street who have criticized Bitcoin for years — are now OPENLY seeking safe haven in sound money assets, specifically gold and Bitcoin.
Trump on BTC and the Fed
Another thing I left out of last post…
Reuters (2 weeks ago): “Trump Media to raise $2.5 billion to invest in bitcoin”
The President of the United States’ family and companies continue to buy more Bitcoin.
It’s not like he suddenly became a sound money purist though… again, President Trump is a pragmatist, and it seems like he simply recognizes the reality that the ONLY way out of the debt spiral is more money printing.
In fact, he’s actually been pressuring Jerome Powell to lower interest rates (ie print more money), and has even announced that he has a person in mind to replace Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.
Are you paying attention yet?
The Big Print is coming.
Even the POTUS wants it…
And even the POTUS is stacking Bitcoin to prepare for the inevitable consequences of choosing inflation over a recession.
Other billionaires buying Bitcoin
It’s not just President Trump.
The list of billionaires who now support Bitcoin — either through personal ownership or their investment firms enabling Bitcoin purchases now — continues to grow:
Elon Musk (Tesla owns more BTC than El Salvador)
Larry Fink (head of BlackRock, with the most assets under management of any investment firm in the world)
Ray Dalio (founder of the world’s largest hedge fund)
Stanley Druckenmiller (legendary Wall Street investor)
Jamie Dimon (he still dislikes it personally, but JP Morgan — the largest investment bank — now supports its clients buying Bitcoin)
Jack Dorsey (founder of Twitter and still CEO of Square/Block, the latter of which is now enabling Bitcoin payments for 4+ million merchants)
Paul Tudor Jones (another Wall Street legend)
And notably…
Mexico’s third richest billionaire, Ricardo Salinas, recently increased his Bitcoin allocation to 70% of his portfolio AND published a book called “The Bitcoin Enlightenment”
That’s not even a full list of billionaires who have PUBLICLY admitted to owning Bitcoin.
The “smart money” is making moves.
If you’re still on zero at this point… what are you waiting for?
Vegas conference takeaways
There’s a lot I could say about this…
But I just passed 1000 words, and I’m keeping this post short.
There were many talks with well known speakers — including Vice President JD Vance — at the world’s biggest Bitcoin conference two weeks ago.
I’ll just highlight one panel that I personally find especially noteworthy.
Panama City is following El Salvador’s lead.
Here’s their mayor on a panel with President Bukele’s advisors Max and Stacy, hosted by Mike Peterson from Bitcoin Beach:
The “Axis of Bitcoin” (as Max calls it) is spreading throughout Central America…
Now including the home of this entire hemisphere’s most important canal for global supply chains.
And their mayor even mentioned the possibility of incentivizing ships with faster passage through if they pay in Bitcoin.
Watch out as supply chains increasingly start preferring the resiliency, upside, and frictionless ease of use across borders that Bitcoin enables compared to the slow, bureaucratic mess of the dinosaur fiat system.
Economía Bitcoin
Again… I’m keeping this post short.
(Final count: 1,463 words)
But round 2 is definitely happening again in Bitcoin Berlín this November 22-23.
Charlie’s visit to the Vegas conference was productive.
We’re already in talks with multiple potential sponsors, multiple potential speakers (including some pretty high profile ones), and lots of potential visitors, including representatives from several other Bitcoin circular economies.
If you’d like to get involved, go ahead and message me.
And be sure to follow the event’s account on X.
The theme this year is “taking the next steps with Bitcoin Economies” hosted in El Salvador’s biggest circular economy.
If you’ve already accumulated a healthy amount of Bitcoin as an investment, tickets for this event are now available.
Come experience the forefront of Bitcoin adoption as a medium of exchange!
More details coming soon…