T.T. 62: bullish on solutions
BTC all time high... bond market tremors... conferences and commerce
Hola amigos,
Greetings from D.C.
Bitcoin just set a new All Time High last week.
It peaked (for now) at $111,891 last Thursday.
We just passed Amazon that day — yes, AMAZON — as the fifth biggest market cap of any asset in the world.
I say “we” loosely, of course.
But for all of us who had to endure endless amounts of doubt over the years — particularly through the bear markets — from friends, family, critics… I feel like all of us have earned the right to feel vindicated.
Our conviction paid off!
But I’m not saying this to gloat.
I’m saying it for emphasis.
It’s the $36 trillion question…
(Almost $37 trillion now btw)
WHY is Bitcoin going up?
In this relatively short post — barely over 2000 words — I’ll overview the problem, the solution, and possible next steps.
Let’s dive in.
Topic list
Bond market tremors
The Big Print
Vegas Bitcoin Conference
Pizza Day + Steak n Shake + Square
Economía Bitcoin
Joe Nakamoto’s new Berlín video
Bond market tremors
Most people don’t pay much attention to financial news. Bonds in particular are supposed to be safe… predictable… boring.
That’s been the status quo — bonds as the “risk free” asset underpinning the global financial system — for decades.
But right now?
If you’re not paying attention… you probably should be.
The global economy is in a situation. It’s been brewing for years, but its direct impact on everyone is starting to become urgent.
And don’t just take my word for it. The big economic and financial media outlets are finally admitting it now too.
You can look up for yourself what’s happened over the past two weeks with the sovereign debt (bond) issuances in the U.S. and especially in Japan as well.
Here’s one starting point:
The Telegraph (6 days ago): “‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy”
And that’s just Japan…
I could go into the Yen Carry Trade, or the fact that Japan owns over $1 trillion worth of U.S. treasuries — they’re the largest holder of U.S. sovereign debt — which they’ll most likely be forced to dump on the market sooner or later.
I could go into all of that.
But the U.S. bond situation is bad enough without even bringing Japan into it.
Yahoo Finance (10 days ago): “Why is the Fed quietly buying billions in bonds — and hoping nobody notices?”
Bitcoin and gold have been booming lately for good reason…
The Big Print
A great book with this title came out recently. I’ll circle back to that, but here’s the brief summary of our economic situation.
The U.S. economy was reshaped over the past century increasingly around the influence of government spending.
Government spending has become increasingly reliant on debt.
Interest payments on that debt now exceed $1 trillion per year…
Several trillion dollars worth of U.S. debt needs to be refinanced soon — you can “thank” Janet Yellen for handing the Trump Administration a macroeconomic time bomb — at interest rates that are significantly higher now than previous years (raised to combat the inflation spike from 2020/21’s reckless money printing)…
The entire debt-based fiat currency system is looking more and more obviously like a Ponzi Scheme. It requires new lenders to pay back the old lenders, and those new lenders are starting to dry up.
The Federal Reserve has quietly started printing new currency to buy our government’s own debt. If that trend accelerates, the hyperinflationary debt spiral becomes irreversible.
And right as austerity is more obviously essential than ever — at a time when it even has widespread political support, with over 70% of the U.S. public in favor of DOGE reducing government waste — GOP congressman have proven that won’t happen.
The selfish, short-sighted sociopaths entrenched in the power structures of my home city D.C. are incapable of saving themselves (let alone the rest of us they “represent”) and this fiat system from their own corruption and stupidity.
Again, it’s not just me saying this.
Elon went back to his businesses once it became clear that Congress wouldn’t codify DOGE’s spending cuts.
The establishment pushed him out of D.C. almost immediately after he started talking about auditing the Pentagon and the Federal Reserve…
And it’s not just Elon.
David Sacks is President Trump’s “AI and crypto czar” — an official advisor — and even he admitted these realities in a recent episode of the All In Podcast (hosted by four successful investors):
“Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE”
With confidence in long term sovereign debt already wavering, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is set to INCREASE deficit spending by trillions more over the next few years.
There is no stopping this train. Some of us have seen it coming for years, but the evidence has become increasingly undeniable now.
That’s why Lawrence Lepard — a successful investment fund manager with a Harvard MBA and decades of experience — wrote “The Big Print”:
I just finished the audiobook version over the weekend. Physical copies are also available on Amazon.
That isn’t a referral link by the way. I’m not paid to say this.
Whichever medium you prefer, audio or physical, I genuinely believe this book is worth your time — for every single adult alive who has any savings or investments — to understand what’s happening.
I’ve read many books about macroeconomics, and “The Big Print” ranks among the very best for explaining the full situation without being too long or too technical for someone outside the field.
The TLDR key takeaway though?
The inflationary debt spiral is real, and it isn’t slowing down.
It’s not a fluke that more and more of the “smart money” is openly seeking safe haven in sound money assets right now to ride out the oncoming storm.
Gold has a 5000 year track record, so it’s understandable that it’s still at the top of the “Top Asset Market Caps” list with which I started this post.
But it’s extremely noteworthy that Bitcoin just surpassed Amazon.
Amazon has achieved an unbelievable degree of dominance over supply chain distribution — delivery of almost every kind of product — throughout the world’s biggest economy and beyond.
(Not to mention AWS cloud dominance in the world of data)
Google has achieved similar dominance over information supply chains. For over a decade, they’ve dominated the flow of internet traffic.
Google (Alphabet) is now ranked seventh… two spots behind Bitcoin, one behind Amazon, and just barely ahead of silver’s total market cap.
Bitcoin has now surpassed silver, Google, and Amazon for good reason…
It’s essentially the same reason why gold also reached an all time high last month.
The current status quo is unsustainable.
The debt situations in world-leading economies are spiraling out of control. The market is losing trust in the most powerful economic institutions. Central banks are losing their ability to paper over the cracks.
If you don’t own any Bitcoin (or at least gold) yet, that’s been understandable so far. Up to this point it’s seemed like a risky bet.
But now?
Now that the fiat system itself is increasingly risky… now that even that system’s biggest institutions are OPENLY resorting to sound money to save themselves… you should really start doing some research.
Lawrence Lepard’s new book is a perfect starting point.
Vegas Bitcoin Conference
The timing couldn’t have been better for this year’s edition of the world’s biggest Bitcoin conference.
A lot of Bitcoiners have criticized this event for years… too much spectacle, not enough signal. Too many shitcoiners and politicians… etc.
I get where they’re coming from, but they’re also missing the point.
This annual event has had unbelievable impact on the world.
In 2021, this event (in Miami that year) is where President Bukele announced El Salvador’s legal tender law.
Last year in Nashville, it’s where President Trump himself promised to stop the Biden Administration’s attack on crypto, to free Ross Ulbricht, and to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the world’s biggest economy.
And those are just two of the many famous speakers who have participated over the years… just two of the most noteworthy out of many big announcements.
For years, Bitcoin Magazine’s annual event has drawn attention from mainstream press by creating an impact (and a spectacle) that’s impossible to ignore.
This year is no different.
Headliners include Vice President JD Vance, U.S. Senators, and representatives from some of the world’s biggest financial institutions and other corporations.
At a moment when the world needs Bitcoin more than ever — as world leading economies are on the brink of a sovereign debt crisis — it will draw more attention than ever to the solution.
And yeah… there will be a lot of noise, political pandering, shitcoin scamming, and more.
But it’s up to the rest of us to channel all this attention in the right directions. Bitcoin Magazine still deserves credit for constantly growing the funnel.
Pizza Day + Steak n Shake + Square
Corporate treasuries and nation state strategic reserves have drawn most of the Bitcoin headlines over the past year.
But the developments that I find most meaningful are on the “Medium of Exchange” front.
I was going to make this post longer, but I’m busy, so here’s the short version:
We recently celebrated the anniversary of “Pizza Day” when an early Bitcoin adopter established its value for the first time ever by paying 10,000 whole Bitcoins for two pizzas to be delivered.
Years later, the “digital gold” narrative started to overshadow the “peer to peer cash” aspect of Bitcoin… but its usage as a “medium of exchange” is actually what established it as a “store of value” in the first place!
Capital gains taxes have held back Bitcoin adoption in the “developed” world for many years. However, more and more Bitcoiners insist on using this superior form of money as actual money anyway, regardless of tax implications.
Businesses certainly benefit from that.
Steak n Shake — a burger franchise throughout the U.S. — recently started accepting Bitcoin Lightning payments in ALL of their stores nationwide.
They’ve already experienced a big influx of customers as a direct result. One of their executives just said at Bitcoin Magazine’s Vegas conference that Lightning payments have cut their credit card processing fees in half!
And that’s not all…
Jack Dorsey’s company Square just announced that they’ll be enabling Bitcoin transactions very soon for ALL of the 4 million merchants who use their payment terminals.
At a time when the need for Bitcoin is becoming more obvious than ever, it’s also becoming easier than ever to actually USE as money.
Economía Bitcoin
I’ll save more details for future posts.
But it’s official… we’ve announced Round 2 this November!
The announcement thread on X already got five figure views — not bad for a cold account with just 500 followers — we already have sponsorship interest, we already have some confirmed speakers, and we’re just getting started.
The theme this year?
“Taking the next steps with Bitcoin Economies”
Accepting Bitcoin payments is just the first step. The meaningful impact of Bitcoin adoption comes when merchants start learning about it… realizing how much it benefits them to save in it… and especially when they start spending it with each other.
This is how local economies and supply chains become supercharged by the full potential of Bitcoin. This is how entire communities become more resilient from the increasing risk of fiat events like the Silicon Valley Bank run.
I’ll say a lot more in future posts.
If you already know you want to attend though, the early bird tickets are now available!
Joe Nakamoto’s new Berlín video
I’ll say more about this as well in my next post.
But this is cool for me.
Joe “Nakamoto” is a journalist whose work played a big role in my interest in Bitcoin “circular economies” in the first place.
That’s why it’s a special “full circle” moment for me to see him make a video about his visit to Berlín a few months ago!
It was just released this past week, and already has a few thousand views on YouTube.
Again, I’ll say more next post, but here’s the link:
That’s all for now…
Just one final point:
Charlie is at the Vegas conference representing Berlín and Economía Bitcoin.
He’ll be at the Bitcoin Communities booth today at 1pm. If you’re at the event, be sure to stop by and say hi!